Rural
25 July, 2025
‘Cautious optimism’ for Agricultural trade conditions
BENDIGO Bank’s 2025 Mid-Year Australian Agriculture Outlook offers a comprehensive update on supply, demand and pricing forecasts for key agricultural commodities over the second half of 2025.
With around two-thirds of Australian produce destined for export, global market volatility continues to shape growth opportunities, reinforcing the importance of diversified trade relationships.
Two major forces are influencing the sector’s outlook: ongoing seasonal challenges and a volatile geopolitical landscape.
Despite this, the overall outlook for Australian agriculture remains cautiously optimistic, with the potential for improved seasonal conditions, stronger consumer demand and lower interest rates helping to underpin confidence.
While global trade uncertainty remains a headwind for producers, processors and exporters, strong international demand and more favourable trade conditions are expected to provide continued price support.
Bendigo Bank’s Senior Manager Industry Affairs, Neil Burgess, said, “Tariff changes by the US and China are contributing to market volatility. While the US’s 10 percent tariff on Australian goods is likely to have limited direct impact, flow-on effects are expected. The easing of US-China trade tensions is encouraging, but a long-term solution is still a way off. This may boost the chances of Australia finalising a trade deal with the EU, which could open up significant opportunities for beef and lamb exports.”
Exports remain a bright spot.
“Beef demand is set to remain solid as US supply tightens, supporting strong export performance and potentially higher prices in the latter half of the year.
“Winter crop production is forecast to decline by 9% from last season to 54.5 million tonnes, but a late seasonal break in southern Australia has lifted optimism. Export demand for canola, barley and chickpeas is particularly strong, with stock levels at multi-year lows.
“Domestic demand for fresh produce is expected to lift as retail prices ease. A record calendar year for exports is also predicted, with almonds, citrus, avocados, macadamias, stone fruit, potatoes, carrots and onions all performing well.
“Lamb export volumes may decline due to tighter supply, but demand remains strong—particularly from the US and China—for both lamb and mutton,” Mr Burgess said.
