Neil Burgess, Senior Manager Industry Affairs at Bendigo Bank Agribusiness, said domestic wheat prices have eased as the outlook improves, though global markets remain under pressure amid record world wheat production. Canola and barley are offering stronger returns and greater marketing flexibility, with Western Australia on track for a record barley crop. While canola prices softened slightly in July, they remain historically strong.
Australian beef exports continue their extraordinary run, with all major markets recording growth in July. Demand is particularly strong from the US, pushing local prices higher and driving exports to record monthly volumes of nearly 150,500 tonnes. Despite the 10 per cent US tariff on Australian beef, there has been no impact on volumes or pricing so far.
Sheep: Lamb prices remain at record highs, with mutton also surging as supply tightens. Export volumes for both have dropped, with lamb at its lowest since January and mutton since July 2022. Prices are expected to hold steady in August but may ease in spring as new-season lambs hit the market. However, supply will likely remain lower than average, keeping prices well above the five-year trend.
Dairy: Farmgate contracts have reportedly exceeded $10/kg MS as processors scramble to secure supply. Some private contracts are significantly higher than public bids, raising questions about pricing strategies and compliance with the mandatory code of conduct intended to balance power between farmers and processors.
Horticulture: Vegetable prices are mostly higher year-on-year, though rising input costs continue to squeeze margins. Fertiliser and chemical prices are expected to remain volatile, while irrigation costs sit at multi-year highs. On the positive side, urea prices have eased since their June spike linked to Middle East tensions.
Almonds: Global trade shifts triggered by US tariffs have opened opportunities for Australian almond exports, especially to China, the world’s second-largest consumer. Local almond prices have climbed to their highest level in a decade, supported by low domestic stocks and a weak harvest.
Stone fruit, avocados, and table grapes: Australian stone fruit exporters face growing competition from South Africa, with a China trade deal expected in September. Avocado producers will compete against Chile’s largest crop in a decade, while Chile and Peru’s grape growers seek new markets in Mexico, Europe, and Asia to avoid US tariffs.
Wool: Wool prices lifted at the start of the 2025/26 season, supported by lower supply and steady demand. The AWEX EMI rose for four consecutive weeks despite currency shifts. Supply is down 1.9 per cent year-on-year, with the opening week recording the lowest offerings since 1995, before a sharp lift in the final week prior to recess.
